The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply
of milk for consumers."

In this argument , the writer suggests the Batavia government should regulate the retail milk prices to ensure both lower price and adequate supply for the local consumers . To justify the suggestion the writer cites a report from the department of agriculture in Batavia in which says that the number of dairy farms increased 25 percent over 10 years . During the same time period the farmers received excessive profits because of the increasing milk supply and milk prices . However , this suggestion is unpersuasive for several reasons .

First , this report must be shown to be reliable before I can accept any conclusions based on it . Specifically , for a survey report the most important is enough investigation . Given in the report is the increasing percent of dairy numbers throughout the country and the milk price only in a local food market . Without evidence of the report’s reliability , it is impossible to give any persuasive suggestion about the local government should regulate the milk price .

Second , the argument relies on the dubious assumption that the increase of the milk price from 1.5 $ to 3 $ per gallon provides the farmers an excessive profits . Based on the theory of economy , profits equals the margin of the income and cost . The income did increased over the past 10 years but the cost to operate a dairy farm increased meanwhile . The cost of the feed and the payment of the stuff increased the total operation cost at these days . So the increasing milk price can not promise farmers better profits if the operation cost is increasing too . Thus , without evidence to substantiate this assumption , the writer cannot reasonably conclude that farmers received excessive profits .

Third , the writer assumes too hastily that the increasing dairy farm number equals apparently increased supply of milk . The consumers need so many kinds of products from dairy industry including beef , cheese , yogurt and so forth . Perhaps over the past 10 years the need for the milk stayed stably . Without adequate statistical data , it cannot conclude the market had apparently supply of milk .

Fourth , the price regulation from government hardly promise the lower price and adequate supply of milk . Price regulation normally strike the positivity of the dairy farmers . The farmers would decrease the production of the milk which would lead the inadequate supply of milk and eventually the price of milk would become higher in short supply .

Finally , even the milk price need regulation , it should be the regulation from market but not from government . Price regulation is one of the functions of free market system . what a healthy market need is the supervision from the government not the regulation .

In sum the argument is unconvincing as it stands .


[ 本帖最后由 steven0203 于 2008-7-5 10:12 编辑 ]

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In this argument, the speaker contents that the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices in order to prevent farmers from receive too much profits and to stimulate the milk supply. To support the contention, the speaker makes some comparison and points out that the number of dairy farms is presently 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago, while the milk price at Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon during the same time period. This argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

Firstly, the arguer fails to establish a casual relationship between the increase of milk price and the necessarily result of increased profits for milk farmers. The rise of milk price at the local market might be caused by various reasons, for example, the increase of cost for rearing cows, recently inappropriate weather for grass growth and cow breeding, or some deadly infectious disease stroke to the country. All of the above situations are possible to render cow farmers decreased profits rather than excessive increased profits. Besides, regulation of retail milk price does not guarantee the adequate supply of milk for customers. On one hand, if the retail price is too low that the retailers have no profits to make, they will stop selling milk and people will have no milk to buy. On the other hand, if the prices set by the government are far from making up for the cost of dairy production, the farmer will bankrupt and close their farm, leading directly to the declination of dairy industry and inadequate supply of milk for customers.


Secondly, the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the 25 percent increased number of dairy farms within 10 years could result in an apparently increased supply of milk. Although the dairy farms’ number increase, it is possible that the gross area of the farms all together has not changed yet, and the numeral increase is merely because of large farms has been divided into several smaller ones. In addition, greater number does not necessarily mean larger scale. The productivity of the dairy farms could possibly decrease as a result of grater number but smaller scale farms. On the other hand, as mentioned in the former paragraph, price of milk has doubled during the past 10 years. Some residents might think the milk price is prohibitive and refuse to buy milk which would lead to a decrease on consume of dairy product, thus decrease the supply of milk as well as restrict the profits gained on dairy farms.

Last but not least, the arguer fails to provide us with some details. Is the increase of milk price from $1.50 to $3.00 during the same time period a steadily process or a sudden one due to some particular reasons like disease or bad weather conditions? If it was because of the latter reason, then diary producers suffer more than consumers and the government should help the farmers to overcome the bad times rather than making regulations to limit their profits. Besides we still not informed about whether the milk price set by Excello Food Market could represent a nation wide price level of milk. It is possible the milk price at that market is much higher than the average price in the country.

As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the speaker would have to demonstrate the relation between dairy farms number increase and the capability of milk supply. In addition, the arguer must provide evidence to convince us that the increased milk prices result of the increased profits of dairy farmers.

最后一个人的

The editorial recommends that the government should begin to regulate retail milk prices to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply by the evidence that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is greater than before but the price is higher than before. This argument contains several logical flaws, which render it unconvincing.
First, the going up of milk prices can’t indicate that farmers are receiving excessive profits. Perhaps the price of milk is going up is because of the inflation of the national economics. If this assumption is true, the higher price of the milk is reasonable and government can’t regulate the retail milk prices, or it will do harm to the industry of milk and the interests of the famers will be hurt. Under this circumstance, government should take measures to resolve the problem of inflation. There is also a probability that the cost of producing milk is more than before, so the profit of farmers can be the same or even less than before.
The editorial also assumes that the supply of milk is enough, but the editorial provides no clear evidence that people now can get plenteous milk. Perhaps people in ten years ago seldom drink mink and the number of people who drink milk everyday is much less than it is now, or popular now are much more than before. So it can be possible that the milk provided for people is enough ten years ago but it is inadequate now although the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. If this is a fact, the measure regulating retail milk prices can cause worse of the situation that the supply of milk to people is inadequate.
The editorial also assumes that the higher price of milk is due to farmers, but the editorial provides no clear evidence. Perhaps the prices farmers sell to retailers keep the same. If the price of retail milk is regulated by government, then the prices that retailers bought milk from farmers will go down. This can result in that some of farmers won’t continue to produce since the earnings is going down even at a loss. So the provision of milk will be even less and the objectivity that ensuring both lower prices and an adequate supply can’t be realized.
In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen it the editorial must provide better evidence that the supply of milk now is enough and farmers are receiving excessive profits.

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